Android News
Android’s nuclear zombie apocalypse
August 19, 2010 | by Ed Clark
Android, Android News, Android OS, Google, Open Handset Alliance, Rumors
Several months ago, I put on my fortune-telling hat and reassured Android fans that OS fragmentation would not doom the system. My points back then were: 1) Android 2.1 would be made available to a wide variety of phones, not just to the Nexus One, and 2) The fragmentation we were seeing was not like Linux, but much more like the rise of Microsoft in the early days of the PC.
On this latter point, I explained that Android’s openness would have dozens of manufacturers clamoring to make hardware to run it, and there would be many, many models to choose from (unlike the “one product” model from Apple).
In a later post, I also forecasted that Android would continue to grow well past the iPhone because of its affordability and more open ecosystem. So how did I do?
- It seems the fragmentation worry has largely disappeared, as 2.1+ versions of Android have become the default, and Google itself has promised to slow down the propagation of new versions. (Note: This is not to minimize the plight of folks stuck with old OS versions. People with 1.5/1.6, get out your pitchforks and march on your carriers!) There are so many models of Android phones now that it’s hard to give a straight answer when I am asked to make a purchase recommendation. (These conversations always end up with me asking questions in return: “Which carrier do you like the best? How much do you have to spend? How important are games to you? How much do you use the camera?”)
- U.S. sales of Android-based phones have officially surpassed those of Apple’s iPhone (and pretty much everyone else, for that matter). It is only a matter of time–perhaps months–before Android outsells RIM.
- Of course, Android remains extremely affordable in comparison to other smartphone platforms. For example, at the time of this writing Amazon has the Vibrant (T-Mobile’s Samsung Galaxy S)—an extremely capable phone with most of the latest Android goodies—on sale for $.01 for new 2-year contracts. The price difference between iPhone apps and equivalent Android apps is starting to fade away, but it is still much cheaper to use the Android Market.
Beyond the fact that I enjoy flaunting my Nostradamus-like skills, I am starting to wonder what could spell the end of the line for the Android train. After all, Nostradamus was really known as the doomsday guy, and many of us enjoy running through worst-case scenarios (I think it makes us feel better). But I have to admit that things get hazy for me here and my old fortune-telling hat does me no good.
Here are my wild guesses for things that could possibly kill Android. Feel free to laugh, criticize, or add your own doomsday items:
- Google Chrome: What the heck is it? Google promised to roll this thing out for tablet devices a while back, and then nothing happened. Now it is going to come out this year, in just a few months, after a bunch of Android tablets have already been released. Confusing, huh? Let me quote from the Wikipedia entry for “Google Chrome OS”:
- Lawsuits: Ah, Oracle. And Apple. And whoever else wants to get on the gravy train. Could Android get sued out of existence? As most of you know, Oracle recently sued Android for “knowingly, willfully, and deliberately” infringing on Java intellectual property. Taylor Buley of Forbes magazine thinks that Oracle really just wants to get married to Android in order to get into mobile devices and stay competitive with SAP. Maybe. But maybe it is just willing to drag down anything that floats in order to float a little bit higher.
- Nuclear War and/or Zombie Apocalypse: Well, isn’t that how all doomsday scenarios end up? A few humans survive, Mad Max-style. They cobble together lawnmowers and motorcycles and attack the bad guys (and each other) with strange weapons. Eventually, someone figures out how to get a computer running and the human race starts over.
“The successive introduction of Android and the arrival of Google Chrome OS, both open source, client-based operating systems, have created some market confusion, especially with Android’s growing success. Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer accused Google of not being able to make up its mind. Google has downplayed this conflict, suggesting that the two operating systems address different markets, mobile and personal computing, which remain distinct despite the growing convergence of the devices. Co-founder Sergey Brin suggested that the two systems “will likely converge over time.”
Would Google backstab itself? Sure it would, given the right circumstances. What if other companies somehow tied down Android, for example? (Which leads me to…)
I wonder, what OS would one use to start anew?
Although I think many people don't care about what version of Android they have, I personally like to have the latest version. If a new version was launched, it's because there are improvements and I'd love to have it. It'd be awesome if that whole "you'll be able to update your version through the Market" was real, but it probably won't happen. Whether you believe it or not, there are many perfectly capable phones still running 1.6, and there are others with 2.1 that will never see 2.2, and even though they still can install most of the apps, they're missing out on something. Of course flagship devices will be updated, but that's not all the market's made off… (I'm sorry if there are any mistakes, English is not my native language).
Makes sense to me, jpaisneto. I don't mean to minimize the problem for people with older OS versions, I just meant that it wouldn't kill the OS. The problem goes back to the carriers, who get to decide whether or not a given phone gets an update on their networks. This is why I recommend rooting phones that are on update-unfriendly networks (like AT&T, for example).
I guess it would be back to BASICs! ;0)
no, you were right the first time – fragmentation. devices are still being sold with 1.6. People are frustrated that they can’t get the latest updates easily.
You are right, Dave–I think I'll update my post. I don't mean to minimize the plight of folks stuck with old versions of the OS. This is primarily the fault of carriers, and sometimes manufacturers (Dell Streak on 1.6??!). What I meant was that the fragmentation people were worried about 6 months ago wasn't going to kill off Android, and in fact it looked just like the early 80's PC era (lots of OS versions, custom overlays, and lots of manufacturers). As I said to jpaisneto above, if I knew I was stuck on an outdated version of the OS, I would root my device (or buy a new one).
I thought Nexus One would kill Android because it would tick off all the other android oem's leaving the N1 as the only android phone.
i have a sony ericsson xperia x10i running 1.6. Doesnt bother me most of the time. Its not a big deal for a lot of peole i'm sure.
The biggest risk to Android is the total capitulation of Google in the US to the wireless providers, particularly Verizon. This has resulted in phones/software that are locked down, full of bloatware and limited in terms of services and features that can be accessed and used without paying additional fees (charge me for how much data I use, not how I use it or what I use it for). Yes, we can still root most phones to create some openness, but it is becoming the same cat and mouse game that Apple/ATT have with their customers. The early death of the Nexus One and the lack of a suitable replacement is the end of Android as an open OS. We are now owned by the wireless providers with Google's full cooperation.
My 2 cents: the largest danger to Android is fragmentation. By this I do not mean so much the OS version (starting with Gingerbread we will have only yearly updates which should ensure OEM's have time to update) BUT the device fragmentation. Already we are seeing devices with the same OS version which can not run the same apps due to different hardware requirements, like a specific CPU and lately GPU. The huge number of cheap low spec Android devices which already flood the market (Huawey, ZTC, etc) will ensure that almost everybody can have an Android phone but will also increase average Joe's frustration as "my brand new Froyo phone does not run this Froyo app or game". Google's answer can be either to ignore this and create "unofficial" fragmentation or to try to impose minimum HW requirements thus creating official fragmentation.
Robert–how do you differentiate this from the PC market? I can buy tabets, netbooks, laptops, and desktops, with Windows XP, Windows Vista (multiple versions), and Windows 7 (multiple versions), on Dells, Acers, HPs, and what have you. I agree that device fragmentation may be tough for the consumer, but it doesn't seem "dangerous" in the way that Linux fragmentation was.
My main concern is that our phones will become sentient and Android will become a giant supercomputer with an aim to taking over the world. The phones will control us as slaves via bluetooth headsets and we will see the world through augmented reality eyes. The phones will keep us subdued with addictive Tetris like games and showing us reruns of 'I Love Lucy'. People who try to fight back will be forced to listen to the deadly Barry Manilow Greatest Hits album on endless loop. Very scary indeed!
I think you left out an important point for the US. When AT&T and Apple's exclusivity agreement ends that will cause some trouble for Android. That exclusivity agreement has been the best thing to happen to Android and Verizon. That won't kill off Android but it will put a large dent in sales. The only other thing to hurt Android would be inconsistency across vendors (HTC/Motorola) and service providers (AT&T/Verizon). AT&T's latest Andriod phone doesn't allow side loading apps which cuts out a large portion of apps. AT&T also caps your data usage and punishes you for going over. Inconsistent experiences will lead to frustration and if Apple does a better job at solving that problem than the large collection of companies that support Android then there may be problems for Android.
Jim, I agree that carriers can be a big thorn for Android (and in fact may already have been the biggest problem of all, since they control the rollout of OS updates). But AT&T's choices to cripple Android may backfire and lead to greater adoption on carriers that are pro-Android.
I don’t know where my comment went but here it goes again…Let me start off by saying I really like your idea of a zombie holocaust but I don’t think we have to worry about andoid being nuked off the planet I think we have to worry about them nuking us… Android is going to continue to grow until one in every three people on the planet owns an android powered handset. Then comes the epidemic where every single android phone comes down with a virus, not a normal virus but a bio-technologically engineered type thingy like that movie feardotcom. What this virus does is instead of killing you it bends your DNA to allow your body to absorb your handset. Once absorbed the virus connects the handset to your brain where the handset becomes self aware and begins taking control and leeching your life juices to keep alive. Slowly the parasitic handset takes complete control of your body changing it; modifying it until you are truly an android. Once the process is complete you join the android army, complete with emperors, kings, and presidents from all over the world. The invasion is launched and mankind is enslaved to the droids. And that is how android is goin to take over the world.
"leeching your life juices to keep alive." Haha, love it!