Android News
Opinion: Why 1.7 million iPhone sales = No big deal
June 29, 2010 | by Ed Clark
Android, Android OS, Google
Many Android fans were awed and perhaps even aghast at the stunning sales figures for the iPhone 4. In just the past few days, Apple sold over 1.7 million phones. When you compare this with the “record-breaking” sales of the Sprint EVO, which totaled just over 66,000 in two days, you can see why folks are worried. Judging from a few recent blog posts on the topic, some are wondering if Android will be crushed out of existence by the hordes of iPhone users we have been seeing all over the media. However, I’m here to tell you: This is not a big deal for Android. Not yet, anyway.
THE USERS
Part of my evidence comes from a recent Crowdscience study which focused on iPhone, Android, and Blackberry users. The findings showed that iPhone and Android users were a lot alike: each group was highly loyal to their OS, was not likely to change platforms, and had very similar phone usage patterns. Blackberry users were the least loyal and the most likely to change platforms. So what does this data mean when you consider that there are over 25,000,000 iPhone users worldwide? (Apple sold 24.89 million iPhones in 2009). Simple. It means that Apple is likely to sell a whole lot of iPhones, many to the existing faithful.
As I have mentioned in my past articles, I have more than my fair share of friends and acquaintances with iPhones. Not surprisingly, most of them tell me that they are upgrading from their current 3G and 3GS models to the newest iPhone. (Some have actually decided to switch to Android, but that’s a distinct minority.) The Android side has the same pattern. Only this past weekend a friend of mine had just upgraded his entire family from G1s to the latest T-Mobile Android offerings. Obviously he could have moved everyone to iPhones, but he didn’t.
THE TECHNOLOGY
As Jobs pointed out in his keynote, the reasons to upgrade to iOS 4 include the following: better display, better processor, multitasking, and more flexibility for the user interface (custom wallpaper, app folders, etc). The first two items are already well-matched by high-end Android phones. The last two items are great selling points for iPhone users, but are almost meaningless to Android users, because these abilities were already built in to the core OS.
The App Store is the most common (and best) argument for iPhone supremacy. However, the Android Market has also been growing very quickly and has its fair share of spectacular apps unique to Android. While the App Store may have once had an incredible edge in terms of quality and quantity, that edge is disappearing. In the end, if the App Store has 600,000 apps and the Market has 250,000, no one will care that they can download 2,000 farting apps in one place vs. 1,000 in the other.
THE CONVERTS
My last bit of evidence is from personal experience. My friends in Southeast Asia really like iPhones, but they are hugely expensive. They tell me that owning one is like flashing the keys to your Porsche. As everyone knows, you can only get one kind of new iPhone from Mr. Jobs, but you can get into Android very cheaply through many vendors all over the world. If you’re familiar with the characteristics of so-called “disruptive technology,” you can understand why Android is a very serious threat for every other platform, including the iPhone.
I have also had lots of people ask me recently which Android phone to buy (very tough question, by the way, which I plan to answer in a series of posts), and most of them aren’t currently Android users.
This last part is the key. What will Blackberry, Symbian, and Palm users do if the mobile phone market does eventually come down to Apple vs Android? The sense I get is that if you bought a Palm or Blackberry instead of an iPhone in the past few years, you probably had something against the iPhone to begin with. In some cases, this is simply due to a dislike for AT&T, but in other cases people just don’t want to be part of the iPhone crowd.
So what would scare me? Have someone show me that Apple is selling their product to non-iPhone folks, at a rate significantly higher than Android is. That would be tough to do, given than Android’s market share has been growing like crazy, with no sign of letting up. Affordability, availability, and flexibility are really powerful marketing vehicles, and nothing has happened to make that change. While Steve Jobs tells 1.7 million new iPhone users that they are holding their phones the wrong way, Android’s growing presence keeps insisting that they are just holding the wrong phone.
![[OPINION] Apple suing HTC is bad for consumers, Android or otherwise](/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/lady_justice.jpg)
Your EVO sales numbers are incorrect, between all 4 companies Sprint cooperate, Best Buy, Radio Shack, Wal Mart, the total was Closer to 150K in the first two days. this is per HTC rep stating that that was the initial shipment amount from them and they indeed sold out. Thus that figure im sure could have been higher if Sprint had ordered more handsets…..and actually advertised the phone prior to launch.
Mike, my draft version had 150,000, but a brief Google search yielded that 66k number. Send me a link and I'll update the post. Thanks!
77% of the 1.7m were upgrades. This is according to Apple. So if Google has 160,000 new activations per day, they actually gained more users during that time than Apple did. 391,000 to 480,000
Great data that supports my contention. Do you have a link? Thanks!
The 77% number did not come from Apple. It came from a survey where they interviewed about 600 people. Apple has not released WHO bought the phones: http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2010/06/25/77-of-ipho…
There is a brand loyalty element that will never go away. I was happy to move from WM6 to android, but many iPhone owners I know are not easily persuaded into checking out the alternatives, especially the non tech savvy, or those who have their entire multimedia library wrapped up in iTunes.
ASeven, you're absolutely right. The Crowdscience study said that both iPhone and Android users were 90% loyal to their platform.
A long time ago, when the word "iPhone" was just starting to roll of people tongues I was with sprint. But I wanted the iphone and switched to what was cingular at the time. I purchased the wondrous phone and briefly forgot about my hatred of AT&T, briefly. Long enough for apple to con me into getting a 3G, which turned around and made me reforget my hatred of AT&T. For all of a day. 3Gs came out, and I decided by this point in time I'd had enough.This was around the time when the iphone 3G was still unable to send and receive picture mail. Wait that's incorrect, all iphones including the original were capable of sending picture mail. AT&T's network just didn't allow you to do this and they blamed it on the iphone. Yes, the iphone is incapable of mms. Sure AT&T, sure.
With that said. I've seen the iphone 4 and I love it. I want it quite badly. But AT&T could offer me a free iphone and throw in a year of free "service" , in which case I still wouldn't accept the phone. Actually I'd take it, jailbreak it and just use it as a glorified ipod with wifi and a camera. Hell might put skype on it just to spite AT&T. I'm loyal to my iphone, but AT&T can lick donkey balls. I hope verizon or sprint gets one soon. If one gets it, the other automatically gets it anyway since you could just jailbreak it for either sprint or verizon so they should just let both carriers get it. That'll be the day I get my new iphone, until then. Sorry apple, blame AT&T.
Good article. I was wondering about the iPhone #'s.
Having recently switched from iPhone to Android (N1), I would be very happy to read more details on what you mean by "fair share of spectacular apps unique to Android."
I must say that I have been lucky to find 5 or 6 apps Android apps that are worth the download (price doesn't matter to me), most of which are also available anyway on the iTunes app store.
swype is one of them. Google voice is another, updated google maps, just a few of them
Agreeing on swype, or slidescreen which is awesome, although I'd rather call them extensions rather than apps (nevertheless the reason why I switched). But maps is not unique to Android, and important in my case, voice only applies to the US.
Overall, that's still 3 or 4, isn't it a bit far stretched to call it a fair share ?
I don't think Android has reached critical mass yet, Stan. We're just starting to see terrific first-party apps hit the marketplace (such as Dropbox.) The Android marketplace is now growing faster than the apps store, and Android's open approach will more foster innovation and newer ideas as the platform matures–it's just coming into its own, really. I think that within 12 months, maybe sooner, we'll be talking about the Android platform as the leader in quality app development. Google's also looking to streamline the app store to help with all the riffraff (including the upcoming web marketplace.)
New Android user myself here too, by the way. Day four on my Evo, and so far happy with the decision to switch, and very excited about the future prospects for the platform.
On this statement : As everyone knows, you can only get one kind of new iPhone from Mr. Jobs, but you can get into Android very cheaply through many vendors all over the world.
I am in Singapore and I have access to all the android phones by the “other” vendors. Sometimes I will borrow and meddle around with my colleagues’ cellphones and asked them about their experience with the android. Most of them will say, Android is good but the phone is not great. For the iphone, I only hear complaints on the battery life and most of those who complain spend hours on their apps. My conclusion, yes we can only get the iphone from Mr Jobs, but he makes a damn good phone to begin with. As to the rest of the vendors who make phones on the Android OS, they are not doing such a good job. In fact, their product’s reliability and the way which their designed their phone interfaces on the android is hurting the pple’s perception.
Although sales numbers are not conclusive, they are indicative of apple’s supremacy over the rest. I don’t have AT&T woes in Singapore and I am already seeing 35% of the market dominated by iphone. When Nokia was in their prime, they were never close to these numbers. I believe the iphone will capture a larger world share not because Android is inferior, but simply because apple puts a lot of thought and effort into consumer research.
Chee, Apple DOES make an incredibly good phone–no disagreement from me there. Let me give you an example: an iPhone 3G (not 3GS) sells for 18,900 baht (about $630 US) in Bangkok. In Thailand, this is almost 2 months salary for a computer programmer, 1.5 months for a professor, and 1 month for a chemical engineer. Note that you also haven't bought any apps yet.
I believe Android is a disruptive technology. I quote Michael Betancourt for the following description: "it is a new, young technology that is initially of little commercial value; it is ignored because it has an inferior character when compared to the best, most-expensive products of existing technologies; the "disruptive technology" challenges the status quo, forcing change; it works democratically allowing increasing numbers of people to have access to those things which were previously very rare, expensive, or difficult to produce." Finally, a disruptive technology "describes the relationship between entrenched power structures and new developments outside that structure that eventually come not only to threaten it, but eventually to replace it."
Stan, great feedback. Androinica's Andrew Kemaka has a column that identifies great Android apps, but perhaps a review of those apps is in order to highlight which of them are unique to the Android platform. Many of these, like Swype and various home screen replacements, may fall under the "extensions" category, but they are certainly unique to Android (and perhaps highlight the "democratization" aspect of disruptive technology).
Um.. .Google Maps Navigation is the Android killer app. My brother has an Iphone 4 and he's very envious of voice navigation.
You're missing something big. The 1.19 million iPhones that are being replaced will not disappear. Used iPhones have real value on eBay, CraigsList and other places. All the people I know with shiny new iPhones gave their old devices to wives, girlfriends and parents, who are now new iPhone users. Old iPhones are not thrown away (or left in a drawer) at the same rate as other old phones.
Yes, ghenne. And Android users do the same. The millions of Android phones that are now undergoing their first replacements are also for sale on eBay, Craigslist, etc. Phones like my old G1 (rooted) are sold on eBay for $130+ (I paid $179 to be among the first with Android two years ago). Not bad for what was Android's 1st entry into the market.
The thing you have to do is compile ALL Android sales (which were zero 2 years ago) worldwide and measure that growth vs Apple's sales growth. My guess is that Apple's growth has slowed down significantly (only natural, given the size of their installed base). My contention is that Android can grow in ways and places that iPhone can't.
I read on AT&T's iPhone forum that alot of people got two (when only ordered one) iPhones shipped due to the error with the pre-orders. I wonder if they are counting all the mistaken iPhone orders in that count…
I have two problems with elements of the "Android vs. iPhone" saga:
1. Look, Apple's app store is way ahead of the Android Market. Period. End of story. We can reference the "thousands of fart" apps in the app store, but there's just as much fluff in the Market too. We Android users should just concede that the Market isn't there yet. It is what it is. We are early adopters and it comes with the territory. Some day the Market will rival the App Store , but today it simply does not. Just in the last few months we are starting to see some bigger name companies put out some decent Android apps, and that will build the momentum. But I can tell you, having switched from an iPhone 3G to an HTC Incredible, companies that have apps in both the App Store and the Market do not currently put near the effort into their Android apps that they do into their iPhone apps. Meebo and Evernote were my two biggest disappointments. Their iPhone apps were nearly perfect in my opinion, but their Android apps both look like someone took a fun day to learn how to code for Android. Android still needs more market share and a larger base of stable, advanced hardware to convince companies that its a platform worth putting the effort into.
2. The iPhone is a fantastic piece of technology, and I say that as a former iPhone 3G owner, now an HTC Incredible owner. It practically created – or at the very least legitimized – the market that Android is now gaining ground in. Android is a solid OS and with Google's backing is most certainly going to become a great OS – but this constant bickering about which is better is just silly. It's like arguing that pizza is "objectively" better than burgers. Sometimes you want pizza … sometimes you want burgers … or maybe you just don't care for the taste of one or the other, or neither (I'm looking at you, WebOS). Can't we all just get along?
I agree with the previous comment – regardless of whether or not android phones are "better" than the iphone, android fanboys should stop bashing Apple. If Apple didn't carve the market out and perfect the UI and WebOS, google wouldn't have been able to (or even desired to) copy large parts of it and create Android OS. Palm OS, Android, all owe their excellent web browser experience to Apple, which did all the work of taking an open source browser and perfecting it for mobile.
Disclosure – I am an iphone 3GS user, but checked out the Evo and was fairly impressed with it, not as laggy as previous Androids. Have not yet had a chance to see the new iphone 4 yet.
we have a serious problem on our hands if people are honestly "scared" about a freaking phone. "crushed out of existence." My goodness, get a life.
Well, I just upgraded my 2 iPhone 3G's to 2 iPhone 4's for my family, and I sold both 3G's to my coworker and her BF. Guess which phone she and her BF replaced: 2 T-Mobile Android myTouches. +2 for iPhone & -2 for Android. We couldn't be happier with both iPhone 4's: no problems at all with data or reception or screen.
There are MORE than 25 million iPhone users. You only listed the sales data from 2009. My family did not putchase the original iPhone, but purchased both 3G's in 2008, and did not upgrade to the 3GS in 2009. I know people who still have their 3G's and original 2007 iPhones, so your quote of "25 million" would not have captured me, and thus your numbers are skewed. iPhones resell at a much higher rate than the 2nd rate Android-based phone, which are basically retired after the upgrade. Apple sold it's 100 millionth iOS device this past June. http://techcrunch.com/2010/06/07/ios/
The reason most compare the Android devices to iPhone devices are threefold.
1) iPhone was first and was out long before an Android device was produced. So, EVERY media outlet compares the Android phones to iPhone. Kinda like it would be if we ALL drank only one soft drink for a very long time, say – Coka-Cola, and another company started up, say – Pepsi. Everyone would be comparing Pepsi to Coca-Cola. That is just natural.
2) There are only two Operating systems which have a similar type of performance: iOS and Android. It is only natural that when there are only two things that are similar that they be compared to each other! DUH!
3) A lot of people, myself included, just never really liked the iPhone, being tied to iTunes, etc. And, we got VERY TIRED of all the iFans – who seemed to think that their device of choice was better than a trip to the moon, the invention of sliced bread, etc. It is fun and entertaining to FINALLY be able to produce a device to show that the iPhone isn't the end all/be all of the cell phone world. Personally, iDon't care for the iPhone – at all.
I'm glad to be an early adopter of Android. I agree that Apple makes decent hardware, that their App Store is better stocked, and that the quality of a majority of their apps is much better. But, if Android had started at the same time that the iPhone had come out… My opinion – there wouldn't BE an iPhone anymore!
Us early adopters will just have to wait till the devs get better acquainted with Android and begin producing more polished and better apps. I really get all I want from my Android device RIGHT NOW. So, anything better is just gravy.
Yet another "yihaaa" moment for me. What you write are exactly what I have in mind.
I live in one of Asia's megapolis, where handset price is a major concern when choosing a new smartphone. That is why Blackberry is more common here than iPhones. Enter the Android, with brands and price attractiveness even greater than Blackberries.
Android phones are certainly breaking the barrier for a prospective smartphone buyer here! Before, a smartphone is roughly worth 1-2 months of salary. Now, Android smartphones comes with only half – third that value. All with the same (if not better) capabilities to any iPhone.
2nd, iPhone / Blackberry aftersales service is sucks here. No authorized service center, and repair cost is damagingly steep! Any Apple consumer can cry at night remembering the repair bill of their iPhone is nearly the same with initial price! No one will cry over their Samsung or HTC android repair bill, considering the spare parts are commonly available.
3rd, people is being tired of the rules. Being ruled by the govt, the teacher, the boss, the parents, and now while I am actually *paying* for an expensive gadget I am *still* being told what to do??
Subscribe your Berries here, sign up and verify this…pay RIM access this amount…..download via xxxtunes….upgrade here… buy only from xxstore..wait for the next release…etc..etc
No way! I have freedom now with Android! Good bye single supplier!